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BEEF Cattle questions may be directed to the OSU Extension BEEF Team through Stephen Boyles or Stan Smith, Editor
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Previous issues of the BEEF Cattle letter
Issue # 522
January 24, 2007
Don't Buy Blowfish, Use EPDs - Kris Ringwall, Beef Specialist NDSU Extension Service
On most winter nights or even days, most cattle producers do not sit around and ponder the activity of blowfish, sometimes called puffer fish. No, this time of year cattle producers find themselves paging through bull catalogs and dreaming of the perfect bull.
The evening pictures bring about a certain amount of contentment to finish the day. The perusal of the estimated progeny differences (EPDs) rejuvenates some basic math skills, quickly sorting the best to the top. But what about blowfish?
Blowfish have the unique ability to puff themselves up by rapidly swallowing large quantities of water or air; therefore, along with significant spines, they become a rather difficult target for pending predators. As a young child, I had the privilege of having a dried blowfish on my shelf and was always amazed just how difficult any contact with a blowfish was.
Blowfish, like many fish, simply spend their time eating and enjoying life, but are obviously quite prepared for survival. A little natural selection and there seems to be a real opportunity to simply look big and mean and survive.
But, underneath, there is simply a little fish that stays alive and continues on for another day. The connecting point for beef producers is that there are blowfish in the beef industry as well. These are bulls that have a knack for looking big and capable as you stroll by their pen at the bull sale, but when you get them home, they are just another bull eating hay.
Looking big and mean may be a good strategy for blowfish, but in the world of commercial beef, it is not a very wise strategy. The best defense for avoiding bulls that are simply blowfish is having a plan and using it. The best plan for any bull-buying strategy is based on the use of EPDs.
Yes, EPDs are the root of any well-developed selection plan within the commercial beef business. Although crossbreeding certainly has the ability to offset problem areas as well, all beef-breeding programs must start with a selection plan to arrange the best genetics (DNA) available in a producer's herd.
So, the basics are simple. Every bull, at least those bulls recorded with a breed association, should have a reasonable list of EPD values. EPD values are the expected progeny differences when two bulls are randomly mated to cows of the same breed. These expected progeny differences are simply the subtracted values of one bull's EPD versus another bull's EPD.
For example, if a bull (named Nice) has a weaning weight EPD of 40 pounds and another bull (named Nicer) has a weaning weight EPD of 60 pounds, then the bull named Nicer should, on the average, sire calves that have the genetic potential to weigh 20 pounds heavier at weaning. The calculation is 60 pounds (Nicer) minus 40 pounds (Nice) equals 20 pounds. In other words, a 20-pound genetic advantage for the Nicer bull.
This is the same concept for all EPD values. A quick review of the numbers will allow any producer who is looking for a new bull to soon figure out who is the real bull in terms of growth or size versus who is the blowfish and simply puffed full of air and looking good for the day.
The trick in a good beef-breeding plan is to stack the bull pen full of great EPDs. Buying the right bull is an offensive move for survival.
And don't forget that even though some bulls are simply blowfish, a few bull producers are, too. Beware, don't give in to the big, puffed-up bull. Hold your ground and buy the bull you need based on EPDs.
Consignment Deadline for 2007 OCA Seedstock Improvement Bull Sales is January 31st
The Ohio Cattlemen's Association invites you to participate in the 2007 Seedstock Improvement Sales scheduled for Saturday, April 14 at the Union Stock Yards Company in Hillsboro, Ohio, and on Friday, May 4 at the Muskingum Livestock Auction Company in Zanesville, Ohio. The Seedstock Improvement Sales are open to consignments from all members of the Ohio Cattlemen's Association and all breeds of bulls.
The Seedstock Improvement Sales provide cattlemen from across the region an opportunity to sell and buy bulls in a reputable sale. Buyers have the assurance of purchasing bulls with known genetics, a completed vaccination regiment, and that have passed a breeding soundness exam. Many different breeds have been represented in the past.
For 2007, with the addition of the May 4 sale at Muskingum Livestock Auction Company, breeders now have more options and opportunities to market their bulls closer to the breeding season. Changes have also been made to the ages of bulls allowed in the sales. Now, bulls from 1 to 5 years of age will be accepted. In addition, many of the bulls consigned will potentially qualify for Genetic Improvement cost share dollars from the Southern Ohio Agricultural and Community Development Foundation. For a list of the criteria contact the OCA office or visit www.soacdf.net.
All bulls are required to be registered and to have Expected Progeny Differences (EPDs). They will be placed in sale order based on a within breed evaluation system using EPDs for birth weight, weaning weight, yearling weight, and milk. In the past, older bulls have sold better than younger ones. By including bulls up to 5 years of age, some older bulls will be proven with performance data of offspring available. In addition to the regular health requirements, this year, BVD and Johnes Disease testing are strongly encouraged, but not mandatory.
Consignment information and forms can be found at www.ohiocattle.org. Consignments must be postmarked by Wednesday, January 31, 2007. Should you have any questions, contact Bill Doig, MS, Beef Program Specialist, at the OCA office by phone at 614-873-6736 or E-mail at bdoig@ohiobeef.org.
Forage Focus: Pasture Walk at the McKarns' This Friday - Patty Dyer, District Conservationist, NRCS
You are invited to join us for a pasture walk with Earl McKarns at his farm on January 26 from 10:00 a.m. - 12:00 noon. Reservations are not required.
This is an informal visit where you will see the winter feeding operation in action. Earl and Dan will just be completing their winter calving operation with approximately 90 new baby calves on the ground within the past two weeks. They are moving their grazing area on a daily basis and utilizing stockpiled forages and little round bales that were left in the field this past summer.
It is a chance to look at the good, the bad and the ugly as it really is in the field with frequent rains this winter and no frozen, solid or dry ground. We will see their fencing system, water system, calving areas, etc., as they are while being used.
We will not be required to wear the plastic boots while at the farm but we do ask that you have clean boots with all of the manure from other operations cleaned off prior to visiting the farm.
You may meet us at the farm by the calving barn at 10:00 a.m. to join in the discussion and tour. To locate from SR 77, go north to New Philadelphia and take SR 39 east into Carrollton. In Carrollton take SR 9 north to Augusta. In Augusta go EAST (to the right) on Aurora Rd, which is Route 18, for about 4 miles to Apollo Road. Turn left - north - on Apollo Road. The second road on the right will be Marigold Road. Follow Marigold to the farm and back to the calving barn.
If you have any questions or get lost along the way you may call Earl and his wife Nedra at 330-223-1389. Nedra will be at the house to answer the phone if there are calls as people arrive.
Alfalfa Management School
The Ohio State University Extension Fayette County will host an Alfalfa Management Program on February 1, 2007. Topics for the evening include: Variety Selection and Ohio Performance Trials, Soil Fertility, Stand Establishment and Management, and Weed Control. The event will be held at the Agriculture Service Center in Washington Court House, beginning at 6:00 PM. The fee for the program is $20.00, which will cover handouts and a meal. It is asked that you register by January 30, by calling the Fayette County Extension Office at (740)335-1150. If you have questions about this program you can contact John Yost at the previous number or e-mail him at yost.77@cfaes.osu.edu.
School Bells Ring for Beef Producers
Its back-to-school time for beef cattle producers-beef school, that is! The 2007 Eastern Ohio Beef Management and Technology School will be in session in Carroll, Harrison, and Jefferson Counties beginning on Wednesday, February 7, 2007, at 7:30 p.m. in the Jr. Fair Building on the Harrison County Fairgrounds in Cadiz.
According to Mike Hogan, Ohio State University Extension Educator for Carroll and Harrison Counties, the four-week school will feature the most up-to-date production, management, and marketing information for beef cattle producers. "This year's beef school program will feature some new information on marketing, as well as some hands-on activities around the head gate on a local beef operation," says Hogan.
Pre-registration is not required for any of the sessions. The cost to participate in each beef school session is $5.00, but members of cattlemen's associations in Carroll, Harrison, and Jefferson Counties receive a 50% discount. There is no fee for youth to participate in beef school sessions, and refreshments will be provided at all sessions.
The scheduled topics for the beef school sessions are as follows:
- February 7 - Harrison County Fairgrounds, Cadiz - What Harrison Ethanol Will Look for In Calves - presented by Gary Weber, Chief Operating Officer of Harrison Ethanol, and What Calf Buyers Will Look For, Now and in the Future - a panel discussion with Wayne Falb, Keith Hinds, and Jerry Lahmers.
- February 21 - Jefferson JVS, Wintersville - Heifer Development: A New Method to Improve Your Herd - presented by Bill Doig, and Ohio Cattlemen's Association Update - presented by Jim Campbell.
- February 28 - Carrollton High School, Carrollton - What Consumers Want From Beef Producers - presented by Parker Bosley, and How You Can Direct Market Beef in Ohio - presented by Mike Hogan.
- March 7 - Birney Farm, New Rumley - Visual Appraisal of Your Cattle-How Good Are You? - featuring hands-on activities taught by Dr. Steve Boyles.
For more information about the beef school, or to obtain a flyer including maps, contact the Carroll County Office of OSU Extension at 330-627-4310.
Becoming an Organically Certified Producer
A program for those wishing to transition or become an organic grower will be held Saturday, February 3rd at OSU /COTC Newark campus Hopewell Hall Newark, OH.
The keynote speaker will be Joseph Kovach an IPM Coordinator from OARDC, The Ohio Agriculture Research and Development Center in Wooster. The program will also feature, Betty Kananen of Global Organic Alliance Inc. who will discuss the certification process.
Several buyers of organic products will promote what their organizations offer to growers. There will also be break out sessions for livestock and dairy, grain crops, and fruit and vegetable growers. These sessions will include producer panels.
The program registration begins at 8:30 a.m. and is open to the public, but requires reservations. Reservations are required by January 25th. A fee of $25 will cover the cost of materials, lunch and refreshments. For further information contact Amy Fovargue at (740)670-5323 or fovargue1@ag.osu.edu.
Weekly Roberts Agricultural Commodity Market Report - Mike Roberts, Commodity Marketing Agent, Virginia Tech
LIVE CATTLE in Chicago (CME) closed up on Monday. The FEB'07LC closed at $90.250/cwt, off $0.800/cwt. The APR'07LC closed off $0.375/cwt at $92.375/cwt. Futures were weighed down by news of milder weather and another drop in beef prices in the storm-ravaged Plains. Warmer, dryer weather is expected likely to help cattle recover from recent harsh weather events putting them back on timely growth progress. Live cattle spreading in the April/February and June/February were noted. Lower cash cattle prices late last week provide expectations for lower cash prices this week sending futures lower. The 5-Area average cash cattle price ranges were about $1/cwt - $1.50/cwt lower than a week ago coming in about $87/cwt. Pork and poultry seem to be competing for consumer red-meat dollars for beef at the retail level. Overall demand for beef is not seen as particularly strong over the past few months. Exports have not improved much either. According to USDA the U.S. is still having problems resuming beef trade with South Korea as they turn more U.S. beef shipments away saying they contain bone chips or other prohibited animal parts. USDA hopes to schedule more talks before mid-February regarding the dispute. USDA early on Monday put choice boxed beef cutout values at $151.62/cwt, down $1.31/cwt as packers retreat from higher offerings of the last few weeks. Packers are expected to keep slaughter rates down while bidding cash cattle lower hoping to keep margins in the black. The average beef plant margin for Monday was estimated at $16.45/head, up $1.20 /head from last Friday but down $2.65/head from a week ago, according to HedgersEdge.com. Cash sellers are encouraged to push marketings if they can get them out of the pens at the right weights. It is still wise to consider protecting a portion of 3rd quarter '07 marketings at this time. Corn users should hold off pricing more near-term corn inputs now. Corn users may want to protect against rising prices over the next few weeks.
FEEDER CATTLE at the CME closed lower on Monday. The JAN'07FC contract finished at $94.425/cwt, off $0.575/cwt. The MAR'07FC contract was off $1.200/cwt at $92.375/cwt. Feeder cattle started higher on short covering and some support from lower CBOT corn futures but were weighed down by lower live cattle futures. Lower feedlot placements gave some support to prices. Friday's USDA Cattle on Feed report is expected to show lower December placements and declining feedlot numbers. Placement estimates for December due out in USDA's Friday's report ranged from 79.6% - 93.4% of last year. Jan. 1 on-feed supply estimates ranged from 99%-101.9%. The discount of futures to the CME Feeder Cattle index was supportive. The latest CME Feeder Cattle index was off $0.58/cwt at $96.11/cwt. Spotty demand for feeders as feedlots start to dry out from muddy conditions did not provide much support. Cash sellers are encouraged to push feeder sales at the right weight while keeping back those not there yet. Hedgers may be wise to consider protecting a portion of 1st quarter '07 and 2nd quarter '07 marketings. Corn users may want to protect against rising prices over the next few weeks.
CORN on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed 2.4¢/bu lower to 5.6¢/bu higher on Monday. The MAR'07 contract closed at $4.042/bu, off 2.4¢/bu. The DEC'07 contract finished at $3.964/bu, up 5.6¢/bu. DEC'08 futures finished up 1.2¢/bu at $3.746/bu. All these sharp increases are due to the reaction to the last USDA's World Supply/Demand report and talk of more and more ethanol demand. This market is looking bullish amid expectations that more support will be presented by President Bush's remarks in the his "State of the Union" address on Tuesday night. Corn is expected to remain high until new crop acres are reported increased to meet demand. Some bear-spreading was noted (the buying of deferred months and selling nearby months) as some traders reported rolling long positions thinking that near-term demand is waning on account of high corn prices. Bear spreading is not supportive of a bullish market. These same high prices are slowing sales of U.S. corn as Israel reported buying South American old-crop corn because it is cheaper than U.S. corn. Floor traders stated "This looks like bad news for the U.S. as South American corn is now entering the international market and is likely to replaced U.S. supplies for the next few months." Cash corn in the U.S. Midwest and the U.S. Mid-Atlantic States was steady to firm on Monday amid good demand. USDA reported on Monday that Japan bought 121,920 tonnes (4.8 mi bu). USDA also reported 40.6 mi bu of corn was inspected for export last week at the high end of the expected 35-40 million bu. Winter was not a bullish factor in trading today as recent weather was seen as providing plenty of moisture for the upcoming growing season. No significant weather difficulties were reported from Argentina. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) in the MAR'07 contract lost some of its upward momentum after prices declined last Friday. Friday's CFTC Commitments of Traders report for futures/options combined showed funds in long positions at 367,327 lots, up 49,175 from the previous week. Funds in short positions were down 12,651 lots to 59.166 contracts. Volume was estimated by the CBOT at 223,341 futures and 45,248 options. The JAN'07 ethanol futures contract closed off 0.025¢/gal at $1.675/gal, and off 0.08¢/gal from two weeks ago due to higher corn prices. I think this corn market has a good chance of sustaining these prices for the '07 crop year if ethanol demand-forecasts hold up to current USDA expectations. U.S. corn acres will not be able to keep up if that happens. But, that is the $64-ollar question … will ethanol demand projections hold? Corn producers should have considered selling up to 30%-40% of the '07 crop. Buying a July $4.20/bu Call option for 36.6¢/bu may be worth it to protect the contracted corn bottom side while leaving upside potential open. This market is trading in a sideways' pattern for now just waiting on the next news event or profit taking by the funds.
Visit the OSU Beef Team calendar of meetings and upcoming events
BEEF Cattle is a weekly publication of Ohio State University Extension in Fairfield County and the OSU Beef Team. Contributors include members of the Beef Team and other beef cattle specialists and economists from across the U.S.
All educational programs conducted by Ohio State University Extension are available to clientele on a nondiscriminatory basis without regard to race, color, creed, religion, sexual orientation, national origin, gender, age, disability or Vietnam-era veteran status. Keith L. Smith, Associate Vice President for Ag. Admin. and Director, OSU Extension. TDD No. 800-589-8292 (Ohio only) or 614-292-1868
Fairfield County Agriculture and Natural Resources
